Special Report - Trump Tariffs - Impact on the Provincial Economy - April 2025

Summary of Results (Full Report Available for Download Below)

Imposing 10% and 25% tariffs with full retaliation would have severe economic impacts on Saskatchewan, reducing gross output by $12.0 billion and $17.8 billion, respectively, and shrinking the province’s GDP by $6.7 billion and $9.9 billion. 

Employment would fall by 22,500 to 33,700 positions (5% of total employment), with labour income dropping by $1.6 billion to $2.3 billion under the two scenarios. 

Government revenues would also decline, with the federal portion for Saskatchewan falling by $825 million to $1.2 billion, and provincial revenues dropping by $640 million to $943 million. These losses reflect the province’s heavy reliance on exports—particularly to the U.S.—and it’s exposure in manufacturing, agriculture, and resource sectors, which face restricted market access, higher costs, and disrupted supply chains. 

The tariffs would decrease the competitiveness of Saskatchewan products, negatively affect investment, and create anxiety among workers, especially in industries tied to international trade, while also fueling inflation and raising prices for consumers.

It should be noted that these should be viewed as short-term impacts. In the longer term, Saskatchewan will find other markets for its goods and/or the Trump regime may back down, returning to near status quo.